What CEOs are saying about recession in the U.S.

Nov 12, 2023

The breakneck pace of corporate hiring may slow in the coming months — but the overall economy remains solid. That's the takeaway from a new survey of America's leading chief executives shared first with Axios.

Why it matters: The view from the corporate suite — revealed in the Business Roundtable's quarterly CEO economic outlook survey — is of an economy that can come off its inflationary hot boil without the plunging sales and mass layoffs seen in recessions.

State of play: The overall index of CEO expectations edged down to 76, comfortably above 50 (the line between expansion and contraction) but below its long-term average of 84.

It's the underlying details that are more interesting:

Between the lines: The era of businesses hiring every warm body they can find looks to be coming to an end. But top executives envision a period of muddling along with slow growth, rather than outright contraction.

What they're saying: With a potential debt limit crisis averted in a manner unlikely to cause significant economic damage — just what business leaders wanted — they are turning their policy attention to things like negotiations over permitting reform to speed infrastructure and energy projections.

The bottom line: After 18 months of nonstop recession chatter, a soft landing just may be in sight.